Covid: 4 Years Later
Before I begin let me quickly sketch the readers I'm writing this for, so you can decide if it's worth your 10 minutes. Firstly, this is for those of you who are at least somewhat sympathetic to people who are still worried about Covid and are sincerely curious why we are this way. I'm trying to present our case as coherently as I can, with references. (As well as I, a not-quite-professional writer can.) I'd like to convince you our stance is not based on fear, hypochondria, conspiracy theory, etc. But based on peer reviewed science. I'm also writing for myself and other folks who are taking Covid very seriously. I'm an ambassador by nature, so I like to facilitate understanding between groups where there is none. Many in my cohort simply cannot fathom how most of the world is not seeing the problem.
Here's the agenda. First I'll quickly cover history of this pandemic, then some of what the science says about infectious disease and protecting ourselves. Then a brief interlude to explain my personal history and how it shapes my view, and finally some questions about whether this might be more a social problem than scientific one.
This is such a huge topic and there are so many layers to peel back, each with different challenges. For example: I’d like to start with a potted history of Covid, its origin, the cultural and political responses. But every single one of those details is HIGHLY contested, politicized, and swirling with conspiracies. (As is almost EVERY topic today!)
So the best I can do is MY interpretation. Here goes.
----HISTORY----
February, 2020.
The world finally sits up and takes notice of SARS-CoV-2. Many sectors of the economy in many countries shut down. The institutions that are supposed to interpret and inform the public do a bad job, release contradicting advice, (Don’t bother with masks, sanitize everything, no wait, actually DO mask, -no information about how dramatically different the various KINDS of masks are- but stay 6 feet apart, unless you’re eating, in which case you obviously can’t mask and that’s fine, etc.) They also fail to account for the true airborne nature of Covid, with many of the organizations maintaining to this day that mitigations like handwashing are sufficient. AND they fail to communicate the way that science on emerging topics actually works. They fail to correct the “common sense” default assumption most people have that “science” is supposed to be 100% sure about whatever “it” says. These two failures compounded each other and led to a deepening mistrust of the CDC, WHO, state governments, and “science” in general. And where there is broad public mistrust, there is fertile soil for new conspiracy theories.
December, 2020.
The first broadly available mRNA vaccine is made available. Despite irrational conspiracies about magnetism or microchips from Bill Gates, and rational concerns that this was the first FDA approved use of the technology (that had been in development since the 80s, for the record) the vaccine was broadly popular. In that first year most people actually feared getting Covid, despite the relatively low chance of death. (Assuming you’re a relatively healthy person) (Long Covid was not a widely recognized phenomenon.)
During this first year most industries that could provide work-from-home options did so. Lots of people learned how to use Zoom or other video-call apps. Masking was generally-accepted policy in most public places. (Though the quality or fit of those masks was never specified)
Over the years since, virtually every one of these mitigation practices have been dropped. Some minority still get regular updated vaccines. And some very, very small minority still mask in public. And some very, very, very, very small minority actually understand how masks work, and use quality, well fitted masks. In the videogame industry that I work in, it seems like half the companies that allowed work-from-home have greatly reduced or eliminated that possibility. (But for myself and many others I know, that simply means we’ll never work at one of those companies unless we have no other choice.)
As of April, 2024...
Approximately 7 million people have died directly from Covid. Some other much larger number have died of Covid-related complications. This is very tricky to calculate for reasons I hope are obvious.
Here is where I must state my current understandings clearly. These are based on peer-reviewed scientific findings, not social media posts or political punditry.
1. Masks work both to protect others from your viruses (very good), and you from other viruses.(pretty well) IF high quality (Respirator style -see image above- N95, N99, FFP2, P3, etc.) AND well fitted AND worn consistently. Studies that “show” that masks don’t work all fail to demonstrate that proper quality, fit and consistency were practiced. (Also, unmasking to eat indoors does not magically stop Covid from getting into you.) Baggy blue surgery masks that are most frequently given out are not nearly as effective. Most cloth masks, bandanas and face shields are close to pointless unless you are actively sneezing/coughing without stifling properly. But they won’t protect YOU from aerosolized droplets. There is a broadly popular idea that if a mask does not protect you 100% it’s not worth doing. This is just patently silly. Seat belts don’t save you from 100% injury. Neither do helmets, safety goggles, steel toed boots, ear plugs, etc. As a society we have consensus that mitigating risk is worth the precautions. Except for this single issue for some reason. And for the record, my wife and I have not been sick in over 4 years, probably because we mask well and don't eat with others indoors.
2. Covid is a vascular disease. Just because some symptoms feel like a cold, that does not mean it’s a cold. Being a vascular disease means that it can travel anywhere in your body through the blood and disrupt/damage any system; heart, lungs, brain, etc.
3. Every time you get Covid -even when asymptomatic- you run the risk of Long Covid. As explained above, this means you can become permanently disabled or dead from stuff that “common sense” would say is unrelated.
4. “You-do-you” policy of self-protection actively endangers the disabled and those with comorbidities. (Note: if you’ve had Covid, you now have a comorbidity) Shared air is a common resource, so 'you-do-you' cannot address the issue. The same way a factory shouldn't be allowed to 'you-do-you' and pump lead toxins into the air, water and ground.
5. mRNA vaccines made the problem better in the short term but worse in the long term. Not because of any intrinsic medical properties. But because they became a "plausible" scapegoat for Long Covid. None of the data back this up. Lots of people who did not get vaccinated have Long Covid. But culture is not moved by data, rather by compelling narratives that fit people’s worldview. Had a vaccine not been made, there would be nothing as plausible to pin Long Covid on. (It would probably be masking.) More would have died initially. Fewer would have died since, and into the future, if this narrative did not exist, imo.
---PERTINENT BIO BITS--
Ok, so that’s a summary of the last 4 years, and my current beliefs. Now I need to get biographical for a bit to contextualize the rest of my interpretations. Here are some facts about me that inform how I see this issue, and should inform how much weight you put on my opinions.
I was raised in the U.S. (Mostly- Dad was in the Air Force so we moved around a lot.) and in the culture of evangelical/charismatic Christian denominations. Many in this culture believe in Biblical Inerrancy / Biblical Literalism, meaning that every fact about the world must conform to the most literal “common sense” reading of scripture. Therefore: Young Earth Creationism. Evolution must be false. Therefore: an atheist conspiracy to hide the Truth and seduce Christians away from the faith. What this meant practically, for me, was that I was raised to believe a conspiracy theory, I was taught how to tease out the worldview from the evil liberal media/education, interrogate it, find the signs of the satanic influence, then argue against it vociferously.
I no longer believe in that conspiracy theory. But I do value the toolset of cultural analysis and critique that I was taught. It took a decade of deep research, soul searching, and getting to know how science actually works in order to extricate myself from my inherited conspiracy theory. (Doing so caused a lot of structural damage to the epistemological framework that held my faith together. I still consider myself a Christ follower, but that means something very different to me now.) The point of this is to explain why it is that I am very dispositionally opposed to conspiracy thinking. I’ve experienced both sides of that phenomenon. I’ve argued passionately FOR a conspiracy theory before, and since then have argued AGAINST it. I’ve spent years studying how conspiracy thinking works. This is important to understand how I approach Covid today.
The second important biographical fact about me is that my wife is disabled. (Also beautiful and very very smart) She has heart and lung diseases, as well as Ehlers Danlos Syndrome which makes all of her connective tissue do a really bad job at connecting anything to anything. She is in pain 100% of the time. Standing hurts, walking hurts, sitting hurts, laying down hurts, being in water hurts.
Coughing/sneezing/hiccupping can cause ribs to rotate/jam and her throat to kink. So it’s probably not hard to guess what kind of a time she’d be in for if she got Covid. An important note about her is that she is a super medical advocate. She studies the medical literature, makes connections that her doctors didn’t -that later prove to be true- and extends this work to anyone who asks for her help. She has boundless energy for helping others, has a wickedly dark sense of humor, is incredibly creative and is almost always a joy to be around. No, I don’t think she’ll ever read this, but these details are important to me, ok?
Another quick note that will be pertinent later: Our children are grown and moved out. We are not dealing with school aged kids.
So here we are in August of 2024 and I am part of a very small percentage of the population who still thinks Covid is a big deal. I’m almost certain there are fewer of us than there are people who believe that Hillary Clinton drinks children’s blood in occult rituals. If I had to put a number on it, I’d say we “Covid conscious” are about 1% of the population. I've been told it's more like 8%. This does not match my experience based on seeing quality masks in public, but I'll go with that for now.
Remember how I said I am dispositionally opposed to conspiracy thinking? I feel like I need to bring this up because -optically- I’m VERY aware that being in a tiny minority that believes something that 99% of the rest of the world does not LOOKS like a conspiracy theory. (We're the smart ones who see what the sheeple can't see!) But most of the rest of this post is about why I do NOT think this is a conspiracy. I am not special, smarter, or any other attribute. It's a confluence of the factors I listed above that predispose me to interpret reality this way.
What I’m trying to do here is justify how 8% of a population can be correct about a thing, and how 92% can be incorrect (statistically, this is you.) without any shadowy cabals pulling the strings. Without us 8% being prophetic geniuses.
No. My diagnosis for the 92% is really quite mundane. Let’s start on the perceptual level.
1. At this point almost everyone has had Covid at least once, and most have had it 2-6 times. As far as they can tell, they are fine. Covid is annoying, but basically it ranges from feeling like a mild cold, to feeling like a bad flu. (I’m using these words colloquially, because most people don’t actually know what a flu is.) And there are also many cases that are asymptomatic, so without testing/contact tracing, it’s just best-guesses based on waste water levels.
2. Many of us know people who died of Covid, but for the most part those people were old and/or unhealthy to begin with. And over the years we've all seen many old/unhealthy people get Covid a couple times with no obvious change. This leads to a very understandable “common sense” conclusion that Covid is no big deal. (Setting aside the monstrous opinion that old/unhealthy people dying is not a big deal.)
3. The contrast between the signals we got from government and health authorities in 2020 compared to now is a very powerful signal that "Covid is over". I'll get more into this topic in a bit
4. Most of us aren’t close with people who have serious physical disabilities. Those with serious physical disabilities are more likely to be concerned about Covid because for them, the stakes are much higher. I think that if I were not married to someone in that boat -and who was so well informed- I would be in the 92%.
Here’s why.
Social proof is a psychological and social phenomenon wherein people copy the actions of others in choosing how to behave in a given situation. (Note: what others do is seldom actually "proof" of anything expect for their perceived reality which is often different than actual reality. See the Smokey Room experiments for evidence of this fact.) Social proof is used in ambiguous social situations where people are unable to determine the appropriate mode of behavior, and is driven by the assumption that the surrounding people possess more knowledge about the current situation. Most of us do this the vast majority of the time. This is how we learned 90% of the things we have learned since birth. (Walking, speaking, dressing, bathing, customs, etc) Social Proof is generally a great heuristic, with the bonus being that you rarely risk losing social capital by mimicking others. If you clap when everyone else is clapping you signal that you are a person of good taste and on their team. If you walk into a room then suddenly everyone is running out of the room screaming, you’re more likely to survive if you follow their lead, not stand there skeptically analyzing the situation.
Social Capital can mean several things, but the one that I think is important here is the idea of Social Capital as an invisible currency that an individual has. There there things that increase you SC bank account, such as doing favors for people, being perceived as trustworthy, being a leader in your field, etc. And there are things that subtract from the SC bank account, such as being perceived as a free-rider, annoying people, demanding change, (unless there are many others demanding the same change) and generally being a burden for those around you. This invisible currency often makes people with disabilities very poor in Social Capital. (And usually literally poor as well.) Requesting more changes to society, -especially individual behavior- is a VERY expensive endeavor. Most people intuitively understand this unspoken budget they all have. So even if they do feel uncomfortable with the current state of Covid mitigation (which is nothing), they don't want to completely deplete their Social Capital bank account, so they will take the hit, accept the risk, and hope for the best. As long as everyone is quiet about the issue, no one has to confront a potentially uncomfortable reality.
But I think the biggest reason is system justification theory, which posits that people are motivated (to varying degrees depending upon situational and dispositional factors) to defend, bolster, and justify prevailing social, economic, and political arrangements. Even ones that damage/disadvantage them. This is because the stress of not-belonging is usually perceived to be greater than any uncertain advantage that a systemic change might bring. This is super normal. Most people are like this to one degree or another. I reflexively do this for at least 80% of the systems we have.
Right now the prevailing systems we are in offer zero support for those who are cautious about Covid. No financial support. No policy support. No social support. In fact, it’s exactly the opposite on all counts. Anyone who wants to seriously mitigate risk of Covid infection can’t ride in public transportation, carpool, go shopping, go to their doctor, and -if some of the more radical anti-mask laws go into effect- won't be able to go out at all without risk of arrest. Anyone with kids that go to school, church or any other social function are powerless to stop that vector. Anyone with family or roommates who don’t take the same measures are powerless to stop that vector. So even the THOUGHT of taking real Covid risk mitigation seriously in THIS system is preposterous. It’s a thousand times easier for a human brain to instead assume the system is correct. The fringe who disagree are crazy. Or at least hypochondriacs.
Bolstering this assumption is the fact that the institutions that anyone should expect be sounding alarm bells if there was a real threat... are nearly silent. And what they DO recommend, should you seek out advice from the CDC, WHO, NHS, etc. is practically nothing. They are all treating Covid like a common cold. When you go to the hospital almost none of the staff wear masks. (I might be wrong, but I feel like more hospital staff masked BEFORE Covid than do now.) So all of these medical authorities are sending the same signals as the rest of the culture. Any appeal to authority by people who claim Covid is a serious threat is immediately undermined by this fact. So not believing the stuff I wrote above is very understandable.
This, I think, is where the problem lies. With the institutions of medical authority. So how do I -a person who is almost categorically opposed to conspiracy theory- account for this fact? I think when analyzing the failures of any organization, be it governmental, religious, business, etc. there are three broad interpretive frameworks.
1. First is to posit a top-down power dynamic, wherein an elite cadre at the top drive the organization into falsehood for some nefarious motive. That is clearly the conspiracy theory framework.
2. Another is to simply claim incompetence, laziness or greed. (A lot of my cohort go for this one.)
3. But here's the framework that I think is most compelling. System Justification. Remember that? From four paragraphs above? The urge to affirm a system because failure to do so has scary risks. After all, an organization is made of individual humans who all live in a system. When the current system provides no support for an idea, that organization of individual people who live and breathe that system will all work toward justifying said system. No coercion from the shadows is necessary.
I want to be clear that I’m not talking about regulatory capture (also called agency capture) which is a form of corruption of authority that occurs when a political entity, policymaker, or regulator is co-opted to serve the commercial, ideological, or political interests of a minor constituency, such as a particular geographic area, industry, profession, or ideological group. While every organization is going to have a some entrenched people and ideas that are resistant to new information, and every organization will mess up sometimes and then try to cover that up in what could be called a conspiracy, it's very important to draw a distinction between these incredibly common phenomena and what is referred to as conspiracy theory. I want to make sure that’s clear, because "regulatory capture" was the ‘best’ version of the Young Earth Creationism conspiracy theory I learned growing up. (As opposed to the worst version, which was positing a literal devil possessing all the scientists who believe in evolution.)
I could argue that commercial interests are influencing these institutions. But I would have to also argue that every human is inextricably tied to that commercial interest. If there's no valid path presented that does not destroy our livelihoods, derange our social lives and undermine our freedom, then most people are going to convince themselves that there's no path at all. If a different system that still maintains our livelihood, social lives and freedom, but also seriously mitigates Covid risk is simply unimaginable, then our impulse will be to make peace with the system we have. Which requires ignoring the Covid threat.
Instead of regulatory capture, I posit that the forces pushing us to justify our systems within these institutions is a sincere, grass roots subconscious coordination that has to occur in order to maintain the status quo. Because to do otherwise is simply unthinkable. I mean REALLY try to think about it. What would it mean if Covid WAS a serious threat? Would we all go back to 2020 lockdowns? The spike in domestic abuse and other crime? Kids falling behind in education? The entire hospitality sector devastated again? MASK MANDATES?!
Even IF there was a significant percent of the population on board for such a thing, HOW LONG would that have to last? And what about the other percentage of the population who would be very angry and is very well armed? (here in the U.S.) These are the questions that immediately spring to the mind of anyone in that 99% who start to think about taking Covid risk seriously. Due to the confluence of historical and social factors, this is the framework most people are capable of thinking through the issue with. And that’s not accounting for those who think the vaccine is actually to blame for Long Covid or that masks don’t work, etc.
For the record, I don’t think that our society taking Covid risk seriously means a redo of 2020. It does not require us to devastate our economy. We know a lot more now. Some mitigation can be done with infrastructure adjustments, specifically to airflow/filtration Far UVC, etc. Sick leave policy and best practices would help. In theory, a LOT could be done with masking policy, but for some reason this is a political third rail right now, apparently. (But maybe it's a matter of time and place. For example, masking requirements in hospitals seems like a pretty modest request.) Voluntary masking by more people WOULD help. According to this person, masking policy is actually an inevitability.
But my big point to my fellow covid conscious crowd is that unless we have clear answers to these concerns that normal people have, we don't stand a chance changing many people's minds before things get more dire.
---CONCLUSION---
I think I better start wrapping this up. If I’m right about both the risks of Long Covid, and the hurdles to societal acceptance and mitigation of those risks, I can make some predictions that will hopefully be wrong.
1. Increased economic instability due to an ever growing disabled population and increased sick days.
2.More family and cultural breakdown as the stress of more disability strains already over-stressed systems. Loss of emotional regulation from brain damage (Remember, the loss of taste/smell from Covid is because it was damaging your brain.) will lead to more domestic abuse and other crime.
3. Slower pace of innovation as a higher percentage of our scientists, artists and others are suffering from brain fog and other disorders that reduce their efficacy.
4. This dire prediction is too long and specific, but please consider it.
So that’s pretty dark. But it’s important to make predictions in order to test a hypothesis. And because I’m not a doomer, let me posit some potential counter forces.
1. A super deadly new airborne disease comes on the scene and forces us all to contend with masking and other mitigations. Not the best way to handle the Covid problem. But A way.
2. Enough influential people (actors, sports stars, TikTokers, etc) get struck with undeniable Long Covid and we have a 'We Are The World' moment that acts as a cultural tipping point. Right now many cases of Long Covid are not labeled as such, and even if they are, those who suffer from it often feel pressure not to call it that. Because to do so would make others uncomfortable and make them feel like others think they are crazy. (Who wants to hold a belief that only 8% of the world shares?! So alienating!)
3. A new invention/tech solves the problem with some very easy mitigation that is not socially stigmatized or politicized. (Oof. That's a long shot!)
So I’ll end with a message to each of the intended audiences for this.
To those in my sad little Covid conscious community: Yeah, this sucks. Try not to be angry at the rest of the world for ‘not getting it’. I hope I’ve convinced you that it’s not stupidity, cruelty or some other moral failing that 92% of the population just happens to have. It’s just incredibly normal psychology that affects us most to some degree or another. To be clear, it’s very possible that there are those in your life who ARE stupid and cruel and I don't want to minimize the effect of their damage to you; I’m just saying that this can’t explain 92% of the world.
To those of you who are normal, just living your life, dealing with everyday struggles. I completely understand why you wouldn’t want to add THIS to your list of concerns. I completely understand why you would ignore what a tiny minority are shouting. I certainly ignore most of what sounds like conspiracy theories that I come across. No one has time to fully investigate all the links and papers and such before deciding an idea is not worth the effort. But I do hope that if you’ve read this far (statistically very unlikely) then maybe this can be a nudge that makes you more willing to poke a bit deeper. I guess the best rhetoric I have to offer is an even sillier version of Pascal’s Wager: If I’m wrong, all I lost is a bit of comfort because I wore masks and didn’t eat in public indoors. If you’re wrong, you may end up disabled, brain damaged or worse. And I really don’t want that for you, or anyone.
And finally to me, in the future. Please, please, please tell me I’m wrong.
_________
A great thread full of links to more info can be found here:
https://x.com/Becca_Roth/status/1826374714698482021
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